Don't Trust Economists, Financial "Experts", Bankers, Et Al

American economists, financial "experts", stock market analysts, and bankers (to name a few) have been paid (on average and throughout the years), significantly more than American workers that have commensurate experience and education but are employed in other professions. Yet economists, financial "experts", stock market analysts, and bankers (to name a few) are not held to the same strict standards that, virtually, all American workers are held to.

Indeed, it appears that economists, financial "experts", stock market analysts, and bankers (to name a few) can get away with virtually anything as evidenced by the fact that a substantial portion of the government bailout money, doled out to those financial and banking institutions deemed "too big to fail", wound up in the pockets of "too big to fail" workers in the form of bonuses and raises.

Economists, financial "experts", stock market analysts, and bankers (to name a few), indeed, have a good thing going while many Americans (those that still have a job) live pay-check to pay-check and struggle to make ends meet.

When a structural engineer signs off to a bridge design, he or she knows full well what the consequences will be if the bridge collapses. And when a civil engineer signs off to a dam project, he or she knows that an entire region can be flooded and that many lives can be lost if there's a single flaw in the design. And when a soldier, policeman, nurse, doctor, mechanic, plumber, carpenter, electrician, or any other American working man or woman screws up, they know what the consequences will be.

Not so with economists, financial "experts", stock market analysts, and bankers (to name a few).They are a protected species--exempt from the economic foibles that they've subjected their fellow countrymen to. They are merchants without a country. They are government sanctioned scam artists. They are corporate welfare recipients and the biggest welfare cheats of all. They sit at their desks and hunt and peck at their keyboards and torture the statistics until the statistics confess.

Unemployment Rate High For Millions of First Time Job Seekers

Since April 2009, over a million first-time American job seekers have been looking for a job every month but there are no jobs out there for them.

• Unemployment Rate Climbs In November To 9.8 Percent
• America's Economy A Train Wreck It's Rice And Beans From Here Out
• Don't Trust Economists, Financial "Experts", Bankers, Et Al
• Wall Street Execs Set To Receive $Billions More In Bonuses
• Economists Failed To Predict The Recession But They Say It's Over
• New York Mayor Says Deporting Illegals Will Devastate Economy
• State Of The Union: Unemployment, Economy, Voter Approval Index

According to the latest monthly unemployment figures issued by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS), there are over 15 million Americans unemployed. However that number is a drastic under count of the actual amount of unemployed Americans. The reason for the under count is because the BLS simply doesn't count a worker that's unemployed as being unemployed if that worker has given up looking for a job or didn't look for a job four weeks prior to the monthly BLS unemployment survey. The actual and current unemployment rate in America is more than double the latest BLS figure of 9.8 percent. The highest unemployment rate at the height of the Great Depression during the 1930s was about 25 percent.

There is an upward trend in the amount of first-time workers entering the American work force every month. Currently there are over 1.2 million new entrants entering the American workforce every month who can't find jobs (see above chart). At the same time, the amount of American workers who voluntarily left their jobs and are actively engaged in looking for new jobs has flat-lined at about the 800,000 level. In other words, there are currently 400,000 more first-time job seekers competing with voluntary job-leavers every month for jobs and the amount of first-time job-seekers is steadily rising.

Economists disagree on what constitutes a "full employment level". But a ball-park figure for "full-employment" is in the 5 percent range. For America to achieve "full employment" within the next six years will require the creation of about a half million new jobs every month if present unemployment trends continue.

Republicans Still Singing The One Note Tax Samba And Droning On

As a one-time recovering Republican and now a small "r" republican/independent my two cents here, for what it's worth, is as follows: the Republicans would have us believe that reducing taxes for businesses is the magic pill that will get the economy back on track and get small businesses to hire workers and therefore reduce the unemployment rate. The facts are that the federal tax rate is at one of its lowest historical rates. Another thing that Republicans would have us believe is that by eliminating the Minimum Wage Laws, more businesses will hire workers. Yes! That's true! Look at all the illegal immigrants that Republicans hire!

The Republicans are for "free trade". And if they had their way, most American jobs would be outsourced to places such as China in the name of "free trade" and the only jobs left here in America would be at Walmart and McDonalds for less than minimum wage because the Republicans would eliminate the minimum wage. Indeed if the Republicans had their way, they'd take all the money in the federal budget that goes to "welfare" for individual Americans and give it to businesses that ship American jobs overseas.

Nothing hypocritical about it. Just because I didn't include the Democrats in my little diatribe doesn't mean that I don't blame them. I blame them for stuff all the time and anyone that's read my writings and comments knows that. But the Republican party continues to play the One Note Tax Samba as if that's the key to economic prosperity. And at this point, that one note is nothing but an annoying drone. Taxes have very little to do with America's current economic plight. If taxes were the key, then what explains all the good American economies during the times throughout America's history when tax rates were much higher? You can only lower tax rates so much before society suffers the negative consequences. And when that occurs, Republicans will start complaining too. And then who's the hypocrite?

We've got two political parties here in America that are equally bereft of new ideas and leadership. It's the same-old same-old whether it be the Republicans or Democrats in power. By the way: The federal income tax rate on America's largest corporations is 35%. But the reality is that many corporations don't even pay taxes because they're effectively subsidized by the American taxpayer. Also corporations are subject to very liberal tax laws such as accelerated depreciation, stock options, tax credits, and offshore tax sheltering to name a few. In other words, the fat cats are going around crying the blues over how much they have to pay in taxes, yet the Corporate Blues Brothers, in many cases, are not even paying taxes because of all the shelters and loop holes in the tax system. Do you think that corporations would put their money where their mouth is if the government lowered their tax rates to say 10 percent and at the same time eliminated all forms of deductions and tax shelters?

I'm often telling Democrats, "progressives", liberals, et al, that most of those in the Tea Party were ticked off at Bush years ago as well as being ticked off at the Blue Blood/Country Club Republicans. The Tea Party sentiments just didn't happen as a result of Obama's election. Those sentiments were long in the making. And I think that the underlying force which drives the legitimate Tea Party members is that they know they've been getting hosed by the Federal Govt. for years and virtually no politician gives a crap. It's business as usual in Washington.

I'm all for a fair and equitable tax system and I'd like nothing better than to see the IRS tax codes reduced to about 50 pages and all of the loop holes for corporations eliminated. But I'd much rather hear Republicans talk about what they're going to do about enforcing the immigration laws and keeping jobs here in America instead of outsourcing them. If and when the American economy picks up, have no doubt that the illegal immigrant floodgates will open wide and the result will be lower wages and American citizens competing with illegal immigrants for low-paying jobs. And the Republicans won't do a damn thing about it, because the majority of Republican politicians are in the back pocket of corporate interests. And as we all know, American corporations like nothing better than an endless supply of cheap labor that keeps on getting cheaper and cheaper. All in the name of "free trade"!

When one takes an in-depth look at the current unemployment statistics, one can only come to the conclusion that millions of American workers will remain unemployed permanently. And those that are lucky enough to find a job will wind up working in jobs that don't pay them anywhere near what they were getting paid prior to the time that this American economic debacle occurred. As a result, their standard of living and quality of life will decline dramatically. That translates into a lot of angry Americans and a consequent complete and total mistrust of government and the business community.

Curiously, the only industries in America that have been maintaining unemployment rates well below the national average are the banking, finance, insurance, and securities industries along with the health, education, and government sector. Every other industry is FUBAR! What hope is there for an economy that merely consists of a bunch of pencil-pushing/white-collar/"financial experts", bankers, insurance workers, health-care workers, "educators", and government workers? The American people should be outraged over the fact that the unemployment rate for most industries is double that of the bunch that caused America's current economic woes.

American Employment Skewed Toward White Collar, Clerical, Health

The American economy in its present form is unsustainable. Indeed it's a false economy--a voodoo economy--based on thin paper and false hopes and promises. Every month, throughout the past three years, American consumers and businesses spent an average of $523 billion more on products and services from overseas than they did on American products and services. And the only job sectors that have maintained unemployment levels well below the national unemployment rate are white-collar, temporary clerical, government, health, and education.

The average unemployment rate since the end of the recession and through Nov. 2010 was 9.7 percent. In the month of November, the unemployment rate was 9.8 percent. During that same period, the average combined unemployment rate for white-collar professions, which include banking, finance, securities, and insurance, was 5.8 percent. Health care workers averaged 5.9 percent and government workers averaged 4.3 percent. The construction industry averaged 19.8 percent, the manufacturing industry 11.3 percent, and the durable goods industry averaged 12.1 percent. During that time, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose slightly and fell slightly. The GDP is a measure of all goods and services produced in the United States whether the goods are produced by American or foreign owned companies.

There are now "officially" over 15 million Americans unemployed. However that amount significantly understates the actual unemployment numbers by millions, because unemployed workers are dropped from the "official" final unemployment count every month. The 15 million that are counted as unemployed have been unemployed for an average of 8 months. That is the highest average duration of unemployment since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began compiling those statistics. Moreover, since 1948 we haven't seen numbers anywhere close to that. We did however see those kind of numbers during the Great Depression which occurred throughout the 1930s and up through WWII.

Since the recession was declared officially over in June 2009, America has experienced an average net job loss of over 86,000 per month. In order to bring the unemployment rate down within the next two years to 5 percent (which is considered by many economists to be a "full employment level"), it will require the creation of at least 450 to 500 thousand new jobs every month beginning in January 2011.

America experienced a major recession in the early 80s during the Reagan Administration. The recession was severe and prolonged because the Federal Reserve put the breaks on the economy in order to reign in the inflationary spiral that occurred during that time. That recession began in July 81 and was declared over in Nov. 82. The unemployment rate at the beginning of the recession was 7.2 percent. It took until June 1984 before the unemployment rate went back down to 7.2 percent. During that time, substantial net job gains only started occurring in March 1983 at the average rate of 400,000 per month and totaled over 6 million.

America's last recession was declared officially over in June 2009. Since June 2009, the average monthly job growth has been minus 86,000. In other words, we haven't experienced any net job gains for the 18 month period beginning June 2009 and ending Nov. 2010. It's true that in some months during that period jobs were added. However it's now 18 months later and we still haven't made up for the 1.5 million jobs that were lost during that time let alone make up for half of the 15 million workers that remain unemployed as well as the 100,000-plus new monthly entrants to the American workforce.

Unless we start seeing positive job growth in the neighborhood of 200,000 to 300,000 consistently and without fail every month, we're not even beginning to get out of the unemployment woods. We've got a serious long term unemployment problem here in America and the Bureau of Labor Statistics understates the problem by millions every month in its "Employment Situation Summary".

Unemployment Rate Climbs in November To 9.8 Percent

According to the latest unemployment figures issued by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate increased to 9.8 percent in November. It was 9.6 percent during the months of August, September, and October.

There are officially 15.1 million Americans unemployed. However the actual unemployment numbers are much higher than that, because the BLS doesn't count those workers who didn’t look for a job within the 4 weeks preceding its unemployment survey as being unemployed. For example, 2.5 million unemployed Americans were not counted in the November survey because they essentially were “discouraged” and gave up looking for a job. If those 2.5 million workers were included in the November unemployment figures, the unemployment rate would be 11.4 percent. This begs the question: If millions of the unemployed are not included in the unemployment figures every month, then how many American workers are actually unemployed? 25 million? 30 million? 40 million? More?

The BLS monthly unemployment figures also don’t include the 9 million workers that are working part time and not by choice, but because of “unfavorable business conditions” and their inability to find full-time work. Those part time workers are counted as being employed. The BLS defines a part time worker as someone that works 1 to 34 hours per week. The average work week for all private (non-farm) employees in November was 34.3 hours. In other words, according to the BLS data, if the average American worker has his or her work-week cut by 18 minutes, then he or she will be considered a part time worker.

In November, there was a net gain of 39,000 jobs. According to labor experts, it takes the creation of about 100,000 new jobs each month just to absorb new entrants into the American workforce. In other words, it will take the creation of 400,000 new American jobs every month for the next two years to absorb new entrants into the work force and bring the unemployment level down to 5 percent which is considered to be a "full employment" level by many economists.

November’s leaders in new job creation were Temporary Help Services (39,500), Education and Health Services (30,000), and Health Care and Social Assistance (23,100). Retail Trade lost 28,100 jobs. The Goods Producing Industry lost 15,000 jobs. The Manufacturing Industry lost 13,000 jobs. And the Construction Industry lost 5,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in Management, Business, Financial, Professional, Health Care, Education, and Government occupations continues to be well below the national unemployment rate, averaging about 4.7 percent which is the rate which many economists would consider as “full employment”.

41.9 percent of those currently counted as unemployed (6.3 million) have been out of work for 6 months or more. Of course that figure doesn’t include the millions of unemployed which the BLS doesn’t count every month because they gave up looking for a job.



You Won't Know Until You're Dead

One of the most frustrating things is watching someone continue down the road to perdition. Frustrating because one may have many of the right answers and the right strategies to help that person get on track and lead a productive life and therefore avoid the hell (if there is a hell) that they'll inevitably be faced with if they continue down that road. But the only way to do that is to get the person that's hell bent on destroying themselves out of their destructive environment. Similar to taking a kid out of the inner city and sending him to boot camp. The old carrot and the stick routine. Rewards and punishment. Everyone is familiar with the drill.

The rewards necessarily have to be more enticing than the behavior, mindset, and life style, that will get the hell-bound punished. It's a slow and seemingly inexorable process. A truly dirty, heart wrenching, and thankless job. We immediately inject ourselves into a situation where a person with a gun is about to commit suicide. In that case, we have no qualms about jumping in and rescuing that person. However the only difference between the person with the gun and the person that continues to walk the road to perdition is the time lapse between life and death. Why are we then not as willing to jump in and rescue the slow suicide victim?

Suicides, like everyone else, have no idea of what they'll face once they're dead. Indeed once they cross the fine line between life and death, there's no turning back. Their decision is final and eternal. Suicide is not a rational act just as continuing to walk the path toward perdition is not a rational act. No one knows what awaits them in death until they're dead. And no one knows what awaits them in hell. We can only take rational decisions based on prior knowledge and experience. We have no prior knowledge or experience of what occurs once we're dead. We have no prior knowledge or experience of hell--only what we think hell might be like.

For many on their death beds, regrets swim around in their heads. Regrets often times to the point where the dying drown in their sorrows. No one knows what awaits them once the inevitable occurs. No one knows whether there's a God, a Devil, a Heaven, or a Hell. No one knows whether there's a Karma, a reincarnation, or a simple peaceful non-existence consequent and subsequent to death. We can speculate and philosophize and engage in wishful thinking all that we want when it comes to this life and the next life if there is in fact a next life. But all of that amounts to nothing but intellectual gymnastics. We know absolutely nothing about death or life after death until we've experienced it. Anyone that claims to know is full of crap. Once we experience death, it's too late to avoid death. It's quite possible that we really don't know anything at all until we're dead.

A Narrow American Perspective

We grew up during the late 50s and 60s in a comfortable middle/middle-class American environment. We lived in relatively small to medium-sized homes, in a relatively small and insular neighborhood, but with the benefit of a panoramic view of the Manhattan skyline, no less, and a 23 acre park, just blocks away, with rolling hills situated between the East River and the Long Island Sound. Two cars, boats, many good friends, church, choir, piano lessons, Sunday School, Girl Scouts, Boy Scouts, and so on and so forth were the norm.

In virtually all respects, we never went without, as it were. In other words, we grew up in a very stable, comfortable, and well-fed environment and in a very average American way. As a result, we're secure today, to the point of arrogance in some people's minds, in our knowledge of what we are, who we are, where we came from, and where we've been. There's no doubt that we're the lucky ones and there's no doubt that we'd like nothing better than for our children and grandchildren to be even luckier than we are.

Other than in a feel good sense, what someone does for a living, or how much money someone makes or has, or how much "formal" education someone has, or what kind of neighborhood they live in, or how much they pay for their kid's college, is meaningless. Just like there's always and necessarily an "opportunity cost" in any economic endeavor, there's necessarily an opportunity cost associated with any road or path we choose to take in this life. Life always reaches a point of balance and equilibrium for the average American. What goes around comes around.

The reality is that for all of us, there's no escaping the hard times just as there's no escaping the good times. Indeed when the foibles start pinching and slapping at our faces and ultimately the sorrows follow and come in battalions, we're all on equal footing. Rich and poor alike, and everyone else in between, cry that life isn't fair and ask themselves what they've done to deserve all their pain and suffering. Life is what it is! We need to make the best of it! But in order to make the best of our lives, we need to take chances at times, live on the edge at times, and think outside the box. If we fail we fail! But at least we've tried.